Goldman Sachs has cut its global copper mine-supply forecast by 350,000 tonnes, citing slower-than-expected recoveries at Freeport-McMoRan’s (NYSE: FCX) Grasberg mine in Indonesia and Ivanhoe Mines’ (TSX: IVN; US-OTC: IVPAF) Kamoa-Kakula complex in the Democratic Republic of Congo, as LME copper traded at about $14,040 per tonne on Wednesday.
The Kakula mine at the larger Kamoa-Kakula complex was suspended a little over one year ago following seismic activity that caused severe flooding underground. A September 2025 underground mud-flow accident at Grasberg that killed five workers also disrupted operations. Goldman said neither mine is expected to return to its intended production profile until 2028.
Demand high
The revised outlook underscores growing concerns over copper supply just as demand remains strong. Goldman now expects the copper deficit outside the United States to widen to 640,000 tonnes from a previous estimate of 60,000 tonnes, while U.S. imports continue to exceed expectations.
“U.S. imports beat expectations in H1 2026, and we expect U.S. imports to reaccelerate over the coming month, reflecting the now-open import arbitrage,” Goldman said.
Goldman’s analysts also flagged dwindling inventory elsewhere as a contributing factor to high copper prices. The copper market is expected to stay supported by structural demand from electrification and energy transition projects, they said, while also noting the risk of U.S. tariff policy.
Citi’s analysts echoed this view, saying that “lingering fears of U.S. tariffs on refined copper may support sentiment”, while also pointing to weaker supply growth from mines and “resilient” demand from AI and the energy transition.
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