Antofagasta trims forecast as copper output inches up

Chilean miner Antofagasta (LSE: ANTO) reported a modest 1% rise in third-quarter copper output on Thursday and warned that full-year production will likely land at the lower end of its guidance range of 660,000 to 700,000 tonnes.

The company produced 161,800 tonnes of copper in the third quarter, bringing year-to-date output to 476,600 tonnes, up 2.8% from the same period in 2024. Antofagasta, which operates four copper mines in Chile, said demand remains strong across power, construction and green energy transition sectors.

“Copper continues to demonstrate strong market fundamentals, with rising global demand driven by themes that include energy security, electrification and the development of new technologies, such as AI,” CEO Iván Arriaga said. “On the supply-side, the global copper industry continues to experience elevated levels of disruption, as well as structural factors such as grade decline and rising ore hardness.”

The miner cut its 2025 capital expenditure forecast to $3.6 billion from $3.9 billion, citing depreciation of the Chilean peso. It also lowered its by-product cash cost guidance to $1.2–$1.3 per lb., down from the earlier range of $1.45–$1.65.

Forecast

Looking ahead, Antofagasta expects 2025 production to remain near the lower end of its range, while 2026 output is forecast between 650,000 and 700,000 tons. That represents roughly 2% year-over-year growth, slightly below estimates from BMO Capital Markets, reflecting ongoing grade challenges.

Shares in Antofagasta slid 0.6% to £26.21 apiece in London on Thursday afternoon, valuing the company at £25.8 billion. 

The company said its major development projects, including the second concentrator at Centinela and the desalination expansion and new concentrator pipeline at Los Pelambres, remain on schedule. In early October, Antofagasta announced the first blast at the Encuentro Sulphides pit at Centinela, marking the start of stripping work to feed higher-grade ore into the mine’s $4.4 billion expansion.

“A low 2026 guidance from one of the best-run copper operations is another sign of supply constraints in the global copper market,” Citi analysts said.

Copper prices reached $11,000 per tonne on Oct. 9, closing in on the record high of $11,104.50 set in May 2024.