Editorial: Taking stock of the wildfires that ravaged Fort McMurray

While there are no metals, minerals or coal in the nearby ground, the city of Fort McMurray, Alberta — as ground zero of Canada’s massive oilsands industry and all the large-scale, earth-moving activity associated with it — can nonetheless be considered one of the mining centres of Canada.

And as most Canadians and many around the world are well aware, the city has also been ground zero this past week of what is being called a “beast” of a forest fire that has forced the evacuation of the entire 88,000 population, and the scaling back or closure of many oilsands-related facilities in the region.

The wildfires — stoked by low humidity, high temperatures and strong winds — completely surrounded Fort McMurray, and have extended some 80 km southeast in a swath often reaching 30 km wide. It’s now about 25 km from the Saskatchewan border.

The fire has been so large, currently engulfing 2,290 sq. km, that its smoke can be seen in NASA images taken from space, and it will likely keep burning at a smaller scale for months to come.

Annotated satellite photo of Fort McMurray, Alberta, taken on May 4, 2016. Credit: NASA.

The Internet and TV have been full of harrowing images taken by people driving through tree-high infernos lapping the road on both sides, and scenes that seem right out of The Walking Dead showing strings of abandoned vehicles that had run out of fuel while stuck on the highway in lines to get out of town. Despite the extensive fire damage, there have been no deaths attributed directly to the wildfires.

On May 10, a week into the crisis, the Alberta government said there were 1,547 firefighters, 121 helicopters and 28 air tankers battling 25 wildfires across Alberta. Most of these 25 fires are classified as “under control,” with the Fort McMurray wildfire the only one that remains “out of control.”

Within Fort McMurray’s city limits, 2,400 structures have burned down or suffered heavy damage, while almost 25,000 were saved or spared.

A Royal Canadian Mounted Police officer on a street in Fort McMurray, Alberta. Credit: RCMP Alberta

Still, the provincial government will not allow the bulk of evacuees back into the city for possibly several more weeks. Many are housed at temporary accommodations in the provincial capital of Edmonton, 380 km to the south.

While the city was worst hit, only a couple of the two dozen or so oilsands operations in the Fort McMurray region were in the path of the flames: CNOOC’s Long Lake and Nexen’s Kinosis, and they are both low-footprint, in-situ operations.

But many operations were suspended or scaled back due to a lack of personnel, smoke and other issues, such as limited access to water and electricity, and other industrial necessities.

The oilsands mining operation closest to the fire zone has been Suncor’s Base Plant, 20 km north of the city, while most of the oilsands mines are 30–70 km north of the city and the northernmost reaches of the wildfires: Syncrude’s Aurora North, Suncor and Teck’s Fort Hills project; Canadian Natural’s Horizon; Shell’s Muskeg River; Syncrude’s Mildred Lake; Shell’s Jackpine; and Imperial Oil’s Kearl.

At press time, a million barrels per day of oil production had been taken offline for a week, or about half of Canada’s total oil production.

As the wildfires eased on May 10, some oil production in the region was trickling back, and Alberta Premier Rachel Notley met with executives from companies including Suncor Energy and ConocoPhillips Canada, as well as the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers. She told reporters that “while thousands of lives will never be the same, we can take small steps to getting back the rhythm of northeast Alberta.”

Alberta Premier Rachel Notley’s tweet on May 10: “My sincere thanks to the energy companies for their tremendous assistance during the Fort McMurray fire.” Credit: Office of the Premier of Alberta

It’s set to be the worst natural disaster for Canada’s insurance companies, with industry-wide insured losses possibly reaching $9 billion, according to the Bank of Montreal and others.

The wildfires have even affected Canada’s gross domestic product forecasts, with the Bank of Canada having once forecast that GDP would rise 1% in the second quarter. Now, banks such as the Bank of Montreal and others are forecasting flat or negative second-quarter GDP growth.

Third-quarter GDP growth, however, may get a boost from a return to full oil production and a housing and construction boom in Fort McMurray, as residents return and rebuild.