EDITORIAL AND OPINION — Canadian voters an unpredictable lot — Electing an Opposition

The steady hand of Paul Martin on the helm of the Canadian economy is probably the greatest strength of the Liberal party as it seeks another term in Ottawa and the re-election of Prime Minister Jean Chretien.

The polls show that a Liberal victory is likely, largely because of Martin’s strong performance and the fact that the party has moved right-of-Centre in step with the bulk of the country’s population, comprised of aging, liberal-Minded, fiscal conservatives.

Martin gets high marks even in Quebec, to the dismay of the Bloc Quebecois, which is hoping to secure another term as the official Opposition despite the lackluster performance of its new leader, Gilles Duceppe. The Bloc’s political future also is coming under pressure from Jean Charest, pro-federalist leader of the revived Progressive Conservative party.

Charest has done a remarkable job of bringing his party back from the political hinterland, and it appears certain that, after June 2, the Conservatives will have more than the two seats they currently occupy in the House of Commons.

Charest’s efforts are being helped by a growing number of voters who intend to vote for the opposition, rather than ruling, party. In the west, the Reform party is being helped along by a similar sentiment, as it was in the last election.

The most surprising trends to come from recent polls are that so many Canadians remain undecided about who they intend to vote for — and that so many plan to vote strategically, either for the party they believe has the best chance of forming the Opposition, or for the party that best reflects their regional interests. While the economy and health care remain unifying issues that cut across the political spectrum, little else can be taken for granted.

While this trend helps opposition candidates in areas where their support is strongest, it inadvertently may benefit the front-running Liberals, particularly in Ontario, where support for the Conservatives and Reform is running neck-And-Neck and may split the vote enough to push a Liberal candidate over the top. In Quebec, Bloc candidates may get the edge if the pro-federalist vote is split between Liberal and Conservative candidates.

The west will probably return plenty of Reform candidates, notwithstanding some displeasure over Preston Manning’s leadership and the departure of moderates, such as Stephen Harper. While some eastern pundits have decried Reform’s campaign advertising, which points out that most of Canada’s leading politicians are from Quebec, this theme strikes a chord in the west. This is not because the west is anti-Quebec but rather because

it has been alienated by the increasingly archaic and irrelevant war of words between Quebec separatists and federalists that has, for too many years, dominated the federal stage. Archaic, westerners say, because Canada has moved far beyond the traditional “two solitudes” of French and English, so why drag the ghosts from the Plains of Abraham into yet another century? And irrelevant, they add, because decentralization and federal offloading have provided provincial and local governments with increased autonomy to make the kinds of decisions that their constituents want.

The political landscape in Canada is changing, along with the role of various levels of government, which is not a bad thing for a nation with such geographic and cultural diversity about to enter a new century. While the electorate appears ready to move into the future, far too many politicians still cling to the past.