One serious problem in the use of geostatistics to estimate reserves and not mentioned in the correspondence you have published on this topic arises when there is a mistake in the computer program.
In an example I encountered, the volume calculated by polygonal methods was widely different from the figure produced by the computer program on geostatistics. We designed a trivial problem for the program to execute, which we could check by hand, and again found an unacceptable difference. The program had been marketed extensively throughout the industry, but it was only at this stage, when we presented the designer with our experience, that an error in the program was discovered.
This experience supports the fear many engineers must have when called on to give an opinion about reserves estimated by geostatistics. The mathematical basis for geostatistics is persuasive, but if there is a mistake in the program, how do you know? What sort of assurance can we give bankers?
Brian Hester
Vineland, Ont.
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