Since the mid-summer, gold prices have surged back towards the 7-year highs of US$389 per oz., set in February of this year. Indeed, the afternoon fix on Sept 9. actually surpassed the February high (though the morning fix was lower). Despite a recent pullback, gold prices look poised for a technical assault on the US$400-per-oz. level.
Gold’s performance is even more surprising when one considers it has coincided with a recovery in the U.S. dollar, a rally in the Dow Jones Industrial Average, higher bond yields, and stronger industrial metal prices. These market trends all indicate an improving macroeconomic environment, which is traditionally a time when gold attracts less buying interest. What explains gold’s sudden surge higher?
The reason behind higher gold prices is unlikely to have been physical demand, though there are signs physical demand may have stabilized during the second quarter. According to statistics released by Gold Fields Mineral Services (GFMS), gold fabrication demand fell to 10-year lows in the first half of 2003, at 1,509 tonnes (-1.8% year over year). However, in the second quarter, Indian demand was 36% higher than in the comparable period of 2002, while Middle Eastern demand was also higher, up 8%, year over year. This is corroborated by anecdotal evidence, such as the Dubai Gold & Jewellery Group’s announcement of a 34% rise in year-on-year demand in June and July. That being said, overall demand during the second quarter was up a more modest 6.6% reflecting sharply lower consumer demand in China. Both the World Gold Council and GFMS attributed this recovery in demand to the fact that prices during the second quarter were lower than they were in the first. If this is the case, the 2.5% rise in the average price in the third quarter cannot have been good for demand. This is corroborated by informal discussions suggesting that most, if not all, South African mine output is now being sent directly into the London market. Continued weakness in short-term lease rates is also likely to reflect poor consignment demand (as well as the lack of hedging).
Several commentators have attributed some of gold’s recent strength to the beginning of the Hindu festivals (notably Diwali, the festival of lights), which stretch from August to October. However, one should not expect any seasonal demand surge to be reflected in prices. This is because although demand may be seasonal, prices are not.
If there is no jewelry driver behind this sudden surge in prices, perhaps this is because prices reflect the much-awaited surge in investment demand. Unfortunately this seems unlikely to be the case. Overall, sales of U.S. Mint Gold Eagle units remain poor, though they have recovered from the lows set in May, which were the second-lowest in the past 10 years.
However, coins are “old gold” — securitized investment gold is the “new gold.” Is it this, perhaps, that is behind the surge in the gold price? Unlikely. Although the ASX-listed
Producers, who did so much to ignite this rally, do not appear to have materially increased the rate of hedge-book reduction. According to data from GFMS, producers have reduced their hedge book by about 5 million oz. in each of the past two quarters. Long-term lease rates are broadly unchanged since the end of the second quarter, and though longer-term volatilities are higher, they are broadly in line with 2003 averages. Moreover, there has likely been an increase in over-the-counter structured products — which tend to involve volatility buying. Lastly, the collapse in options granting has tended to increase the volatility of volatility as dealers are more concerned about covering positions. In such an environment, one would expect longer-term volatilities to rise.
So if it is not investment, not physical demand, and not producer unwinding, what is the cause for higher gold prices? The cause is simple — massive speculation on Comex. The statistics are stunning. Total open interest at mid-September was 289,024 contracts, which is the highest since early January 1981, when gold settled at US$594.50 per oz.
The net non-commercial (speculative) position in early September of this year was 12.3 million oz., the highest since electronic records began, in 1983. Comex speculators increased their position by over 150% between the end of June and 2 September — net buying was close to 7.4 million oz. Moreover, there are other indicators of speculative activity: Comex seat costs have been exploding and are now at their highest in more than a decade.
There are several factors that have supported the massive increase in speculative involvement in gold. These include concern about the macroeconomic environment, (specifically fears of deflation earlier this year, now switching to concern about possible inflation farther ahead), enthusiasm for the producer hedge buyback story and its implications for gold prices, and, more recently, signs that discussions for broadening the European Central Bank Gold Agreement to include a larger group of banks are under way. Irrespective of the validity of a number of these factors, however, the narrow base on which gold’s strong recent price performance has been built (that is, mainly hedge funds and commodity trading advisors with a history of gold-trading experience) suggest that the market will struggle to move much higher unless gold’s appeal as an alternative investment can be broadened. Several initiatives have been launched to make it easier to add gold to an investor’s portfolio, and the World Gold Council intends to launch an exchange-traded fund backed by gold on several exchanges. While such initiatives are a step in the right direction, the jury is out on whether enough fresh investment interest can be attracted in order to sustain gold’s continued uptrend.
New 2003 high for gold
Gold peaked in the first quarter and then spent the next six months trading in a contracting range. That range ended in August when not only was trendline resistance breached but the price also rallied above US$375 per oz., the May high. This breakout signalled that the consolidation phase of the first and second quarters was over and implied that the next leg of the long-term uptrend had begun.
Gold has been rising steadily since the low in 1999. Over the past two years, the pace of the move has gradually increased. After a 6-month period of consolidation, we believe a springboard has been built and that it’s capable of propelling gold to US$401 per oz. and possibly even to $418 (the 1996 high). With the uptrend accelerating, the risk is that the rally will happen sooner rather than later, that is, before the end of the year. Although key long-term support is the 50-week moving average at US$436 per oz., we would expect US$465 per oz. to limit the extent of corrections if the pressure for a test of US$401 per oz. is to be maintained.
Extreme levels of open interest on Comex warn that investors are positioned for gold to rally. Therefore, the spike we are expecting could be greeted with profit taking. Once US$400 per oz. has been tested, we will be alert to a switch in sentiment, as profit-taking would imply a February-style collapse.
PGMs trade higher
Platinum prices have remained in a well-established upward trend since September 2001. The high lease rate environment in early 2003 led to buoyant platinum prices. More recently, and just as with gold, the platinum price has been supported by an increase in speculative buying that has not been evident in the sector since late 1999. Open interest numbers on both the Tocom (Tokyo Commodities Exchange) and Nymex suggest that the investment community is responsible for the recent price increase above US$700 per oz.
After collapsing to a 9.5-year low of US$144 per oz. in early 2003, palladium prices have recovered on the back of investment demand in anticipation that the price differential between platinum and palladium will narrow. As the differential moves above U$500 per oz., it is only a matter of time before “switching” will occur and palladium will no longer be categorized as an inexpensive platinum group metal. Still, as recycling and destocking continue in 2003, we believe palladium will not exhibit the same rise in price as evidenced in platinum. It should, however, remain above US$180 per oz. for the remainder of the year, with a possible move toward the U$300-per-oz. level by year-end.
As future production expansion in South Africa is delayed by the strong rand and the empowerment process, we continue to expect platinum’s demand-side fundamentals to remain extremely positive. Also forecast are strong jewelry sales (led by China), higher levels of investment demand (Japan and U.S.-based funds), sharply higher auto demand (led by the European diesel market), and prospects of further investments in platinum-consuming fuel cell technology (primarily in the U.S. auto sector).
In late January 2003, U.S. President George Bush said, in his state-of-the union address, that he is “proposing US$1.2 billion in research funding so that America can lead the world in developing clean, hydrogen-powered automobiles.” After this speech, platinum saw an increase in investment demand from the public, as investors assume that platinum will be the key to fuel cell technology. More recently, research has shown that fuel cells may be able to use the properties of palladium or even nickel, which are currently less expensive than platinum. New areas of palladium research include the American Dept. of Energy, which is developing palladium sensors that can detect leaks of hydrogen.
Recent news reports suggest Delphi Corp. is developing a new Flex Metal Catalyst, which will reduce the amount of precious metals needed to meet the gasoline emission requirements for both Europe and North America in 2004. One further advantage of this technology would be that the original equipment manufacturer can choose whether to use platinum or palladium late in the manufacturing process. While we are skeptical about the viability of this plan, at least over the foreseeable future, this would be a future argument for increased palladium demand and may represent a buying opportunity, especially if platinum prices continue to trade higher during the next few years.
The merger between
We expect the palladium price to remain between US$180 and US$300 per oz. during the remainder of 2003. The market anticipates the announcement that consumers will revert back to palladium as the spread increases. However, now that Norilsk’s purchase of Stillwater has been completed, the prospect of a steadier supply of palladium should keep the price under control.
With the prospect of delays in the expected production increases from South Africa, along with the continued investment demand, platinum should continue to be supported above US$650 per oz. for the remainder of 2003. As the consumer market increases in jewelry and investment demand remain firm, price risks in platinum are set to remain biased toward the upside. By 2007, we expect average prices of US$600 per oz., as a “switch-back” to palladium may take the shine off platinum.
Tightness in the platinum lease rates in early 2003 caused the price to move above U$700 per oz., but as more speculative forward-buying interest has emerged, lease rates have fallen toward all-time lows. Should producer selling increase with spot prices above US$700 per oz. and low borrowing costs, along with some profit-taking by speculators, the current platinum lease rates could represent a bargain.
Gold
The fundamentals of the gold market do not look supportive of the price in the medium-to-longer term. Demand has fallen sharply in the current gold rally (in place since early 2001), and statistics released by GFMS show that total fabrication demand fell by 11% in 2002 and is now down 15% since 2000. The bulk of this fall occurred in the crucial jewelry sector, which represented more than 75% of demand on average during the 1990s. The world is now spending less money on gold jewelry. After peaking at US$36 billion in 1996-1997, global spending on jewelry has fallen to US$26.8 billion. Notably, gold appears to be losing market share to platinum.
Investment demand looks unlikely to fill the void left by reduced consumer demand, since the investment that has been supporting the price over the past 18 months has been in gold futures (paper gold) traded on TOCOM or Comex, and not the physical spot gold traded on the London Bullion Market. Further unsustainable support is offered to the price by the phenomenon of producer dehedging. When a producer hedges, it agrees a price for unmined production with its counterparties and sells its production forward at these prices on the rationale that the company is then protected from possible price falls. But in periods of price increases, the company is also insulated from price rises. This was realized in the late 1990s, and equity markets began to reward unhedged companies that were able to take advantage of price rises. As a result, gold miners began to de-hedge, whereby they bought back forward contracts to allow them to sell their production spot in the future. The dehedging process has been artificially inflating the gold price since this process began and has picked up pace in recent periods. According to Gold Fields Mineral Services the global delta-adjusted hedge book was cut by 5.2 million oz. in the second quarter of 2003, taking the total to 69.7 million oz.
Silver
Silver demand is divided into three main components: industrial (41% of the total), jewelry and silverware (31%), and photography (24%). The use of silver in the photographic industry has been declining steadily over the past four years, with the 2002 total some 9% below the 1999 level. Not all of this fall can be explained by economic factors. The increasing popularity of digital cameras (from which only a fraction of photographs are actually printed) and disposable traditional cameras (which tend to encourage recycling of the silver they use) poses a longer-term threat to silver demand. In recent months, however, silver has been gaining fund support, both in line with gold (in its guise as a precious metal) and with base metals (in its industrial guise). While both of these factors are offering some support, the spectre of photographic demand in terminal decline hangs over the longer-term prospects of the market.
From the perspective of fundamental supply, by far the largest source of silver is as a byproduct in lead/zinc production (35% of the total), and the zinc industry has perhaps the worst economics in the base metals complex. Were zinc production to be cut back, silver supply would be reduced regardless of the level of the silver price.
Platinum
Since falling back to the US$600-per-oz. level from their multi-decade highs achieved in early March, platinum prices have seen steady growth, and in September they again tested resistance above US$700 per oz. The market fundamentals for platinum remain supportive: on the demand-side there is the increase in autocatalyst demand (31% of end-use demand) in response to palladium’s price expansion in 2000, and on the supply-side there is the “backloading” of South African production expansion plans, combined with an explosion at
Jewelry accounts for 40% of platinum end use, with Chinese jewelry now representing more than half of total platinum jewelry demand. While it is obvious that jewelry spending will rely on global economic growth and, more specifically, on the ability of the Chinese government to deliver the 8% growth rates that have become common, barring a global economic collapse, demand growth for platinum jewelry is likely to remain strong. Moreover, the rapid recovery in Chinese retail sales following the SARS outbreak bodes well for platinum demand as we move through the year.
Palladium
Palladium prices have fallen by 24% since the start of 2003, and while they have gained some US$34 per oz. from their lows of the year, they remain at levels not seen since 1997. Although the fall is precipitous (down 84% from their all-time high of US$1,085 reached in February 2001), it is worth bearing in mind that palladium has averaged only US$260 per oz. since 1991. Indeed, excluding the 1999-2001 period, the price has averaged only US$167 per oz.
Some 66% of palladium demand is accounted for by autocatalysts. The most important factor is not the absolute level of the palladium price but its spread to platinum — its major competitor in autocatalysts. For chemical reasons associated with emission regulations, palladium demand grew in the early 1990s. At the same time, large-scale Russian stockpile sales in the first half of the 1990s depressed palladium prices, encouraging a switch out of platinum and into palladium.
As palladium demand grew, the large-scale Russian shipments of the early 1990s began to falter, with export contracts delayed during 1998 and 1999, and this created problems with the metal, which continue to tarnish its reputation among consumers today. Russia still accounts for almost 60% of global supply.
With palladium trading at a US$500-per-oz. discount to platinum, there have been suggestions that auto manufacturers will shift some of their production back to palladium; earlier in the summer, GM announced it is switching from platinum to palladium in some of its autocatalyst models. But while supply remains abundant, supported by ample scrap availability, and demand remains subdued, the short-term outlook for palladium remains uninspiring.
Rhodium and Iridium
The most recent demand figures show that some 84% of rhodium demand is accounted for by autocatalysts. Total demand for rhodium rose by just under 3% to 596,000 oz. in 2002, while the use of rhodium in autocatalysts grew strongly. However, automakers in the U.S. satisfied a portion of their rhodium requirements by further drawing down inventories. Demand for rhodium from the chemical catalyst and glass manufacturing industries weakened slightly. South Africa remains, by far, the most important rhodium supplier, producing almost 80% of the global total.
Iridium’s principal use in the electronics industry is in the form of crucibles used to grow high-purity crystals. Significant overcapacity has persisted in this sector following the strong sales of crucibles in 2000. Crystal manufacturers had ample capacity in 2002 to accommodate demand, which did not meet previous expectations following the downturn in the mobile telecommunications industry.
However, the effect of this on iridium demand was lessened somewhat by growth in demand for high-purity crystals from medical equipment manufacturers. Materials manufactured in iridium crucibles are used in lasers and sophisticated medical scanners, and sales of these products increased. Overall, demand for iridium in electronics applications slipped by 5,000 oz., to 22,000 oz. in 2002.
— The opinions presented are the authors’ and do not necessarily represent those of the Barclays group. For access to all of Barclays’ economic, foreign-exchange and fixed-income research, go to the web site at barclayscapital.com. Queries may be submitted to the authors at kevin.norrish@barcap.com and ingrid.sternby@barcap.com
Pilagold
Speculation on Comex is the reason behind higher gold prices.
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