EDITORIAL AND OPINION — Will Zaire’s conversion bear fruit? — Sizing up Kabila

Put a few optimistic businesspeople in a room full of cynical journalists and watch the sparks fly. That’s what happened in Lubumbashi, a city in the heart of Zaire’s copper belt, in the aftermath of a press conference held by rebel leader Laurent Kabila, now the president of the Democratic Republic of the Congo.

After Kabila and his ministers made their presentation on how they hoped to lift the central African nation from economic depression and, at the same time, deliver freedom and democracy, the conversation turned to whether or not this was possible, or even feasible.

The optimists held that better days had to be at hand, on the grounds that nothing could be worse than the iron-fisted rule of the country’s long-Time dictator Mobutu Sese Seko. And given the kind of mineral wealth that nature had bestowed, the country’s fortunes could only improve.

Just watch, the pessimists countered, Mobutu may have been right when he said: “Aprs moi, c’est la dluge.” Some argued that, over time, Kabila would become corrupted and display the same addiction to power that plagues many African leaders. Others predicted that his fledgling government will come under threat from various internal and external political forces that still haunt post-Cold War Africa.

Surprisingly, no one argued that Kabila was a Marxist in sheep’s clothing, out to pursue a socialist agenda with a fistful of capitalist dollars. While Kabila is little known in the West (at least until recently), he was, in his youth, enough of a revolutionary to rate a passing mention in Che Guevara’s memoirs.

These days, however, there is no money in being a Marxist, and too much evidence that the experiment has failed worldwide. Kabila’s conversion to free-Market policies appears to be genuine and, with his country in dire need, it would be cold-hearted to find fault with his policy of seeking investment dollars with a social conscience. Fortunately, the mineral wealth of the Democratic Republic of Congo is such that it should be able to carry those costs and still provide a good return to investors.

Zairian professionals say the government policy of “invest, but, at the same time, develop” should not deter foreign mining companies from seeking opportunities in the country. Be creative, they say, and come up with a plan whereby we get a hospital and you get a mineral concession or a tax incentive. And structure it in such a way that local authorities can take over the responsibility as soon as the economy gets on its feet.

While most business representatives were ready to give the new government a chance, the journalists were prone to focus on the negatives and jump on any sign of poor government on Kabila’s part. Which is what they are paid to do, for who would buy, or give credence to, a good-News-only report? Having formed an alliance with the Tutsis, Kabila does face threats from the Tutsi-Hutu conflict that had plagued his neighbors to the east. To the west, he may meet with continued resistance from the remnants of Angola’s UNITA movement, a long-Time supporter of Mobutu, or from those who believe he is too closely tied to Rwanda and Uganda. And, despite the fact that he is from the mineral-rich province known as Katanga (or Shaba), there is a possibility that the secessionist movement once embodied by Patrice Lumumba will come back to life in the copper belt. At the same time, Kabila may have to dodge and weave his way through the remnants of foreign policy-Making aimed at preserving “spheres of influence.”

While all those challenges are real and daunting, it is encouraging to know that businesspeople exist who will put their hard-earned dollars on the line because they prefer to focus, instead, on the possibilities.